Feb Notes

Is the AGI here in the room with you?

Feb 11, 2026

2026 is here. After a slight hiatus, I’m back.

Quick personal update: I stepped back from CEO at ABC Labs (Reserve.org) into advisor role at the end of 2025. Incredibly proud of what we built and accomplished, now its time for Nevin to take the reins again and for something new on my end. I’m thoroughly enjoying sabbatical life and getting some much needed R&R with Olivia and the boys who are now 10 months old. Also, been great to have some time to dive into everything that is happening in tech/crypto/world right now, what a fascinating time to be alive.

What am I thinking about?

AI, energy, and stablecoins really summarizes it. At the beginning of the year I posted on X that “2026 is going to be wild”, and that was an understatement. Lots on AI this time, more to come on stablecoins and energy.

AI model jumps have been astounding. The world is changing before our eyes. A couple years ago I thought “humans will definitely be involved in coding forever” but now of view that humans probably won’t be writing code in 2030, at least not like they do today. They’ll probably be writing a lot more English and a lot less “code” to build software.
- Highly recommend Matt Shumer’s post, Something Big is Happening. If you are not using Claude or ChatGPT or Gemini to actually do things for you, you must go do it. Don’t use it like Google, have it do complicated things for you. Test out your craziest ideas. The output is getting crazy good. Last year I joked that “AGI is here because ChatGPT can pull data out of PDF tables into a csv file” but its doing quite a bit more than that now. Austen Allred has created an app factory that is building one app and shipping it every single hour. Flo Crivello’s launch video for Lindy Assistant is an incredible view into whats coming for everyone even if they aren’t a coder, you should watch it.
- The Anthropic vs OpenAI race has been wild to watch. Was thinking about how Uber vs Lyft was captivating but Waymo won. I wonder, will Waymo for AI be Google (bigger scale) or Apple (better hardware to run better models locally)?
- Anything that previously had a technical skill that limited usage is about to get used more by orders of magnitudes. Databases to be queried, smart contracts, spreadsheets, APIs, etc. “Technical” is no longer a limitation.
  Aaron Levie@levie
  When thinking through the future of software, it’s helpful to think through what will we produce more of vs. less of in the future due to agents. And what systems are tied to that production or consumption. Whether it’s a new startup or existing platform, any system that is
  Jay Kreps @jaykreps
  One distinction missed in the SaaSpocalypse discussion: whatever other uncertainties about software businesses exist, if your unit of value is a software application not a user seat, demand is going way way up.
  5:54 AM · Feb 11, 2026 · 65.7K Views
  24 Replies · 16 Reposts · 161 Likes
- This hitlist below is going to accelerate. Listen to this, ignore some of Elon’s timelines, but interesting brain-stretching conversation.
  Deedy@deedydas
  Let's zoom out and think of everything AI has unlocked in the last 10 years. — We can now generate and edit Hollywood-grade video [Seedance 2], speech [ElevenLabs], music [Suno] and image [Nanobanana, Midjourney] — We have access to infinite senior software engineering code [5.3
  5:17 AM · Feb 11, 2026 · 735 Views
  7 Replies · 4 Reposts · 19 Likes
- OpenClaw (formerly known as Moltbot, formerly known as Clawdbot) has taken over the conversation on X. Fastest growing Github project ever by inventing a new type of growth chart (vertical). For a few weeks now, I’ve been playing around with an OpenClaw agent on a computer at home that I can text from where ever and it is pretty eye opening. Definitely tinkerer-hacker tool for now, and terrified about security, but holy smokes its cool.
  Armin Ronacher ⇌@mitsuhiko
  The lobster is not slowing down much is it? :D
  12:11 AM · Feb 10, 2026 · 165K Views
  28 Replies · 19 Reposts · 321 Likes
Stablecoins - AI Agents can’t get lines of credit easily but they definitely need to pay for things. Stablecoins that settle instantly and can be easily programmed, are inevitable. Stripe thinks so, so do many others. Predicting that % of total payments in world initiated by agents will creep up to a few percentage points this year, maybe >50% by 2030 (although next few years are impossible to predict). This is the highest potential part of crypto usage right now bar none.
Energy cannot be produced quickly enough. Good read from Casey Handmer on state of energy generally. One thing that hadn’t clicked for me previously is that “batteries are democratizing”. Personal freedom in future will come from not needing to rely on centralized powers, whether thats financially (crypto), energy (batteries), or in AI (private, personal models?). Not saying everyone will need or have to use these things, but the option for them will be important for freedom.